Two Reasons Why Businesses Can Stay Optimistic Amid Global Trade Shifts

From fresh tariffs and fracturing geopolitical alliances to recession murmurings in major economies, the global outlook seems fraught with uncertainty. But a closer look reveals reasons for optimism—not just for stock market investors, but for business owners, exporters, manufacturers, and policymakers navigating this turbulent terrain.

According to Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group—one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory firms—the headlines may scream chaos, but the underlying economic dynamics suggest resilience, adaptability, and fresh opportunities for growth.

Here are three reasons to remain optimistic—even as Donald Trump’s return to the White House reshapes the rules of global trade:

1. Governments and Central Banks Are Supporting Growth

Across major economies, policymakers are taking proactive steps to support economic activity.

The European Central Bank has reduced interest rates to 2.25%, its third cut this year. India also eased monetary policy earlier this month, while markets expect at least one interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve before the end of 2025.

Governments are stepping in with fiscal measures. The EU has boosted defence spending to stimulate industrial output and infrastructure, and countries like Germany and France are offering targeted incentives to strengthen local manufacturing in response to shifting trade dynamics.

“This isn’t 2018,” says Nigel Green, CEO of the deVere Group. “Governments are acting quickly and strategically to support their economies.”

2. Economies Are Adapting, Not Stalling

Despite trade headwinds, global growth is proving more resilient than many expected.

China reported Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, driven by domestic demand. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia are ramping up investment and expanding trade within the region through ASEAN partnerships.

In Europe, the European Commission’s Spring 2025 outlook projects 0.8% growth, with stronger prospects expected in 2026 through investment in defence, infrastructure and climate-related sectors.

Rather than entering a crisis, the global economy is adjusting to a new trade environment—focusing on regional ties, domestic investment, and strategic independence.

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